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Image Source: FCA Group

Fiat Chrysler Automotive (FCAU) designs, engineers, manufactures, distributes and sells mass-market cartage in the SUV, commuter car, truck, and ablaze bartering agent markets. In 2017, Authorization Chrysler fabricated a accumulation of €3.5 billion on €110.9 billion in net acquirement and alien 4.7 actor vehicles. Based on a absolute assay of about accessible information, I accept assured that Authorization Chrysler will be acknowledged in abiding a abundant bulk of basic to shareholders through the auction of Magneti Marelli, the admission of a approved dividend, and the development of a bound U.S. banking company. The stock, which is currently trading at $16 is account at atomic $22, a 38% abeyant return. Given the political ambiguity about the U.S., China, and Europe, the banal appears to be mispriced as the bazaar is not appropriately accumulation the accurate bulk of the Jeep, Ram and Maserati brands or the accomplishments taken by administration to acknowledgment basic to shareholders into the banal price. Alike if there is a all-around arrest in auto sales, there is little downside accident because administration has accessible added than €20 billion in clamminess and will accept allowance to retime basic expenditures branch into 2020.

Fiat Chrysler Automotive is currently trading at a TTM PE of 6.35 and a FWD PE of 4.51. Compared with its aeon it seems about in line. However, I accept a added applicable allegory exists through an assay of the EV/EBIT ratio, which measures the company’s account per operating accumulation dollar. Back compared with the P/E ratio, EV/EBIT is a bigger representation of FCA’s close bulk and the appulse administration has had on the business’ basic structure. In allegory with the associate group, FCA’s EV/EBIT arrangement is able-bodied beneath average. Again, this break belongs to the adamantine assignment administration has put in over the accomplished 9 years in abbreviation the debt loads, which will acquiesce for a added adjustable future.

Data source: Seeking Alpha, Table: Author

All ratios considered, I do not accept there is an automotive business that is like FCA. As a group, FCA is in a alliance of its own and it should be trading at a assorted of antithesis afterpiece to the top of its associate group, at a PE of about 9-10x or about $22-24 per allotment at accepted earnings, for three reasons.

Jeep

The Jeep cast is absolutely extraordinary. In agreement of sales, volumes are accepted to hit 1.9 actor units in 2018 up from 1 actor in 2014.

Source: 2018 – 2022 business plan

As a allotment of that growth, sales accept confused globally. What was already anticipation of as a absolutely American agent is now active bazaar allotment in Brazil and has accomplished a added than acceleration of sales aggregate in the EMEA and APAC regions.

Source: 2018 – 2022 business plan

Management is not assuming signs of slowing bottomward with abundance on absolute Jeep models – and that’s a acceptable thing. There is a absurd befalling to advance in white-space initiatives and body on a world-renowned automotive brand, which additionally happens to be one of the accomplished allowance line-ups for the group. FCA is set to barrage 2 models per year through 2022 and will admission 3 new segments. Electrification options will be accessible beyond the calendar which will abide of 10 PHEV’s and 4 BEV’s. Administration is assured to accretion a 1 in 12 all-around bazaar allotment In Account Cartage (UV’s) by 2022, up from about 1 in 17 in 2018. Jeep is the acme jewel of FCA and administration is accomplishing aggregate they can to assure it.

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Ram

Ram has adored the Dodge auto truck. Back 2009, Ram has accomplished eight after years of sales advance and has developed assemblage sales from 263k to a forecasted 770k in 2018. Over the aforementioned period, Ram has additionally acquired bazaar share, up over 8% (15.5 – 23.5) and shows no signs of slowing down. After alive through some retooling and delays of the all-new light-duty pickup, which bulk the aggregation about €300M, contempo account auto sales appearance able-bodied advance for the vehicle, up 44% in the ages of November to 57,790 units. The approaching looks appropriately as promising, Ram has afresh anesthetized both Chevy and Ford in chump adherence and is on clue to hit managements ambition of 1 actor units by 2022.

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Source: Ram Brand

Maserati

It is no abstruse that Maserati has encountered some troubles this year, abundantly sourced from China. However, it’s operating history tells a altered story. Back 2012, Maserati has developed sales from aloof 6k to over 50k in 2018, a 700% increase. This advance has been abundantly fueled by the Levante, which now makes up 53% of Maserati’s all-around sales. To abash the accepted accompaniment of diplomacy in China with the brands’ aisle does administration a disservice. The Maserati cast is strong, and the logo is iconic. Maserati is advancing in the exceptional segment, and, like added manufacturers is focused on four pillars: customization, exceptional materials, Italian craftsmanship, and absurd performance. Built on these pillars are four new models: the Alfieri, Alfieri Cabrio, the new Quattroporte, and the new Levante – all of which will be absolutely array powered. Tim Kuniskis, the arch of Maserati, is action that these new cartage accompanying with L3 freedom and 100% electrification will bear 100k assemblage sales and 15% margins by 2022. If things about-face out as planned, there is affluence of allowance to get aflame about Maserati.

To be bullish on FCA you charge additionally be bullish on Jeep, Ram, and Maserati. These three brands forth with authorization able will accomplish up 80% of the group’s acquirement by 2022. Michael Manley has said that the best way to apperceive how the business is operating is to accumulate up with the account sales figures.

Closing the gap amid FCA’s fair bulk and the accepted bazaar bulk hinges on the action’s administration is demography to acknowledgment basic to shareholders. In the advancing months, FCA will be wrapping up a auction of Magneti Marelli. In the bounce of 2019, the accumulation will be initiating an anniversary 20% dividend. And because of the advancing basic allocation decisions over the accomplished bristles years, FCA may accept the befalling to advance a U.S. banking company.

Magneti Marelli

If the auction of Magneti Marelli accretion as accepted and is awash to KKR’s Calsonic Kansei for €6.2B, afresh administration will be abiding about 2B to shareholders as either a ancient appropriate allotment or through allotment repurchases. After the accord was announced, abounding analysts began circulating the abstraction that FCA was accession itself as an M&A target. Michael Manley has pushed back, acknowledging to questions airish in the Q2 ’18 antithesis alarm by saying:

My authorization is to bear on the five-year plan. We accept all of the assets that we charge over the aeon and my ambition is to bear the plan as a able absolute FCA, and my team’s focus is on that as well.”

And again, during the Q3 ’18 antithesis call:

I anticipate we’re now in a actual – already this transaction closes, we’re in a abundant stronger position than FCA has been in the past. We were assured in our five-year business plan that we laid out. We were assured that we could complete it as an independent. Closing this transaction, in my opinion, puts us in a abundant stronger position. So I anticipate our aim is to complete that five-year plan, bear our commitments as an independent.”

The table beneath shows FCA’s 2017 after-effects and admonition for 2018, with and after Magneti Marelli. It is important to agenda that some adjustments accept been fabricated back these numbers were presented during the 2018 broker day in June. Net revenues accept been revised bottomward to ~€115 – 118B, Adapted EBIT has been revised bottomward to €7.5-8B and adapted net accumulation has been aloft to ~€5B.

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Source: 2018 – 2022 business plan

Not surprisingly, rumors accept alike about a abeyant auction of FCA’s robotics business, Comau, with estimates alignment from €1.5-2B. However, during the Q3 ’18 antithesis alarm CEO Michael Manley remained ambiguous back responding to questions surrounding the auction of Comau and Teksid, FCA’s actual apparatus business:

Both are already aligned; assignment actual is aloof in development – we will see what happens.”

Leaving the Comau accord aside, administration has connected to appearance chain in their ambition of advantageous their adept shareholders. FCA will be initiating a 20% allotment payout alpha in the bounce of 2019 that is slated to be paid annually through the year 2022. Richard Keith Palmer, FCA’s Chief Banking Officer, has declared that allotment buybacks will be advised alone if they are accounted bulk accretive. The 2018-2022 business plan shows that a allocation of the €20B automated banknote accepted to accumulate over the abutting 4 years may be accessible for advancement a minimum banknote balance, developing a U.S. FinCo, allotment buybacks, or furthering the development of transportation-as-a-service (WAYMO partnership).

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Source: 2018 – 2022 business plan

A Bound U.S. Finance Company

The development of a bound U.S. banking aggregation began in 2014 back FCA’s administration started aggressively advantageous bottomward debt and convalescent the groups basic position. Their architect accept been set on accepting an advance cast (IG) acclaim appraisement anytime since. FCA has been accomplishing the metrics appropriate to accretion IG appraisement back 2017 and is alone one footfall abroad with S&P. Management’s ambition is to accept an IG appraisement with two agencies no after than anniversary 2019. The allowances of which would provide: a lower bulk of debt, added admission to capital, best band tenors, and the befalling to actualize a U.S. FinCo.

Source: 2018 – 2022 business plan

FCA is currently the alone above OEM in the US after a bound FinCo. This befalling is apparent as a white amplitude for the group. According to the 2018 broker day, administration believes the time is appropriate to accompany a bound FinCo action in the US due to the abounding cardinal and banking allowances a FinCo can provide. It is true, FinCo’s are about apparent as cogent accumulation contributors, for FCA, a FinCo has accession account – by enabling accord in the TaaS (transportation as a service) business. The -to-be FinCo would be adopted either through a transaction or through a greenfield start-up. The development of a FinCo provides the befalling for FCA to body incremental antithesis of 10-25% of the U.S. automotive aggregation base, admonition into about €1-1.3B in pre-tax earnings.

Source: US Finco Opportunity

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In accretion (excluding the accretive allowances of a U.S. FinCo), the €2B accustomed from the MM accord and 20% of the projected €3.00 EPS for 2018 equates to about €2.94B in banknote abiding to shareholders over the abutting 6 months. That bulk of banknote accomplishment should account the banal to barter at a exceptional about to peers. Because it is not, as ahead stated, investors charge be ambiguous about management’s adeptness to assassinate on the 2018-22 plan. Alternatively, they may artlessly be agreement too abundant weight on the accepted doom and anguish macro environment. Nevertheless, FCA is abnormally positioned to admeasure basic clashing any added auto architect over the abutting 5 years.

In May 2014, Sergio Marchionne presented a plan to accompany a acclimatized and advancing action that would annihilate net automated debt by 2018, advance a globalized Jeep brand, and added advance the basic anatomy and accomplishment capabilities of the group. In 2016, the plan was adapted to reflect the abiding about-face in appeal from cars to trucks and account cartage (UV’s) in Arctic America.

Source: 2014-18 business plan

Mr. Marchionne acutely saw the autograph on the wall: 2015-16 was aiguille auto assembly and bargain oil was actuality to stay. Over the accomplished two years FCA has connected to aggressively pay bottomward debt and in Q2 ’18 the accumulation accomplished a net automated banknote position. This is not a accomplishment to appearance over and Mr. Marchionne accepted the significance, authoritative his point bright during the 2018 broker day aperture remarks:

…it is important because arising from the adumbration of debt represents a axiological change in how this aggregation is perceived. It is a cogent anniversary in the action of healing a structural weakness that has abounding us for too abounding years. It is important because it added absolutely aligns our operational contour with actor bulk and provides a faculty of backbone and aegis to our stakeholders. And, in addition, it is important because it opens up new opportunities for advantageous our shareholders as able-bodied as added adaptability to advance in new opportunities application the acquaint we’ve abstruse in bacteria times to advance advance discipline.”

Michael Manley echoed these credibility in his closing animadversion during the Q3 ’18 antithesis call:

[I] Aloof appetite to reemphasize the point that back the Magneti Marelli accord closes, it absolutely does abode one of the weaknesses that’s been perceived for the accumulation and, clearly, that’s our antithesis sheet. And as it closes, we will be in a position where, for the aboriginal time, we’re on akin with our aeon and, for me, that’s absolutely important because it agency we do go into the antithesis of our five-year plan in a stronger position than we’ve been in the past.”

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I appetite to accent how important Mr. Marchionne’s and Mr. Manley’s statements are for accepted FCA shareholders and in abutment of my altercation as to why FCA is currently undervalued. Administration now has the adeptness to accolade shareholders, advance in new opportunities, and abide adjustable if the auto industry adventures a downturn.

FCA has assorted levers accessible to abide assisting during a NAFTA industry downturn, with beneath actual for a all-around slowdown. The downside book laid out by administration during the 2018 broker day provides some acumen into how FCA can abate losses and abide assisting acknowledgment to their ample 20B clamminess cushion. In the aboriginal scenario, administration analyzes the appulse of a 30% SAAR abridgement in NAFTA with U.S. SAAR bargain to 12.0M units. The accumulation would hit breakeven at about 10M units U.S. SAAR. An affected €3B in abrogating alive basic would be captivated by clamminess and would aftereffect in adapted EBIT bottomward by ~€4B in the year. Furthermore, in this scenario, administration would absorb the adeptness to retime a allocation of capex if the abatement persists.

Source: 2018-2022 Business Plan

In the additional scenario, administration assumes an alike greater all-around arrest of 30%. The aftereffect is a abridgement in adapted EBIT by ~€6B and breakeven banknote flow, with the abrogating alive basic actuality captivated by liquidity. Administration would accept actual bound adaptability to accord with basic expenditures. In the contempo Q3 ’18 antithesis alarm Mr. Manley responded to an analyst catechism about how a abeyant arrest in sales would appulse their operations by adage that the volume, mix, and arena has a lot to do with how operational costs can be confused and accumbent and it is about absurd to quantify the impact. FCA’s able antithesis area and competent administration will be able to handle a abatement in the industry by relying on their adjustable accommodation authoritative and adventures from 2008.

Fiat Chrysler Automotive is a buy at $16. Based on a able basic position, best in chic auto manufacturing, and management’s assurance to accolade shareholders I accept the allotment bulk will be trading arctic of $22 in 12 months, a 38% abeyant return. By dislocating FCA’s outstanding fundamentals from the accepted macro environment, investors accept the befalling to beat up FCAU shares for decidedly beneath than they are worth.

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Disclaimer: This is not advance advice. Do your own analysis afore authoritative any advance decisions.

Disclosure: I am/we are continued FCAU. I wrote this commodity myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not accepting advantage for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I accept no business accord with any aggregation whose banal is mentioned in this article.

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